Assessing the Election Outcome
CNN has excellent data on exit polls that provide an interesting insight into factors that influenced last night's outcome. One of the most critical factors seems to be the issue of gay marriage. Bans on gay marriage were on the ballots in 11 states and not only won in each state but were apparently a key impetus in Bush winning nine of the eleven states. Nowhere was this more crucial to Bush's victory than in Ohio, which was the difference in the election.
Exit polls in Ohio reveal that moral values were the second most important issue to voters, garnering 23% of responses to 24% for the economy. Of this 23%, which amounts to about 1.25 million of the approximate 5.5 million votes tallied so far, 85% voted for Bush. That adds up to over 1 million Bush voters whose most important issue was moral values, which can be seen as a surrogate for gay marriage. Essentially, 20% of the voters in Ohio cast their vote for Bush because they prefer him on moral issues to Kerry. Viewed in this light, gay marriage might be the singular issue that won the election for Bush.
If the Democratic party wishes to regain control of the federal government, it likely will need to move closer to the center on key moral issues. Not a brilliant or groundbreaking insight on my part, but a harsh truth that Democrats remain reluctant to learn. Bill Clinton learned it and earned two terms in the White House.
Going forward, Democrats need to embrace more moderate leaders, rather than someone such as Gavin Newsom, mayor of San Francisco. Ultimately, it might have been his outspoken push on gay marriage that turned it into an election issue that doomed his party to defeat. Like it or not, the country has experienced a conservative revolution started by President Reagan and continued by the current President Bush.